Fading the Trump trade: US dollar asset market correlations with Trump betting odds
Plus, nowcasting Australian Q2 GDP
The betting market-implied probability of a Trump victory in November’s US Presidential election has now returned to pre-assassination attempt levels at around 58% on the RCP aggregated measure, from a high of 66% on 15 July. The PredictIt measure has fallen to as low as pre-Trump-Biden debate levels.
An indirect measure of Trump’s election prospects is the one-month total return of the Nasdaq-listed Trump Media & Technology Group, shown here relative to the S&P Media and Entertainment index. The stock outperformed immediately following the assassination attempt, but has underperformed since Trump’s betting odds peaked on 15 July. While Trump Media is not exactly a high-quality stock, it could be expected to benefit from crony capitalism under a Trump Presidency.
