The cracks start to appear in global markets

Finding out they really are who we thought they were

There has been a rise in bond yields globally since the beginning of last month, a trend that has continued into the New Year. This is interesting from the perspective of the turn-of-the year consensus we synthesised based on nine institutional year ahead outlooks using Chatgpt. It suggested a very benign outlook for bond yields based in part on expectations for continued central bank easing. This was a key point of vulnerability in the consensus outlook, albeit one readily acknowledged in the risk sections of those outlooks. Not for the first time, the consensus looks like being wrong right out of the gate.