The US 2023 recession that wasn’t

Global trade and industrial production not looking too shabby either

The US economy concluded 2023 with an annualised growth rate of 3.3% (or 3.1% y/y) compared to a revised 4.9% annualised pace in Q3. Nominal GDP growth moderated to a 4.8% annualised (5.8% y/y) pace in Q4 compared to 8.3% annualised in Q3. The recession that was given a near certainty by the consensus at the beginning of 2023 never eventuated.

The Atlanta Fed’s Q1 2024 GDP nowcast is for 3% annualised. This nowcast has done a reasonable job of tracking realised GDP, although under-predicted the Q4 outcome by 0.9 percentage points.