Excellent analysis Stephen. The big question is when will the Fed pivot on the funds rate and QT. Most market strategists seem to be saying the Fed's history would suggest not until the unemployment rate rises significantly to slow wages and the inflation rate falls below the Fed rate. What are your thoughts? Cheers, Percy Allan, UTS
Thanks Percy. A significant increase in the unemployment rate would certainly do it, but I think it is enough for inflation to continue to moderate to get a step down in the pace of tightening.
Excellent analysis Stephen. The big question is when will the Fed pivot on the funds rate and QT. Most market strategists seem to be saying the Fed's history would suggest not until the unemployment rate rises significantly to slow wages and the inflation rate falls below the Fed rate. What are your thoughts? Cheers, Percy Allan, UTS
Thanks Percy. A significant increase in the unemployment rate would certainly do it, but I think it is enough for inflation to continue to moderate to get a step down in the pace of tightening.
Thanks Stephen, that's also the view of market bulls who point to annual inflation having peaked. Regards, Percy