US April non-farm payrolls rose 428k in April, only a little short of our model’s forecast of 429k, and above the market expectation of 380k. March payrolls were also revised to 428k. The unemployment rate came in as expected at a steady 3.6%, above our forecast of 3.5%. The unemployment rate remains a tenth of a percentage point above reclaiming its pre-pandemic level of 3.5%, while payrolls remain below their pre-pandemic level, as shown by Menzie Chin:
As Joey Politano maintains in his post, benchmarked against the labour market of the 1990s, the US is still short of its full employment potential referencing the prime age employment to population ratio.
"As Joey Politano maintains in his post, benchmarked against the labour market of the 1990s, the US is still short of its full employment potential referencing the prime age employment to population ratio."
That´s mostly due to the fact that NGDP, since the GR, has traveled on a significantly lower level path. While a stable NGDP growth is consistent with a falling/low rate of unemployment, the level of the fundamental determinants of the labor market (employment, participation) are determined by the Level of activity
"As Joey Politano maintains in his post, benchmarked against the labour market of the 1990s, the US is still short of its full employment potential referencing the prime age employment to population ratio."
That´s mostly due to the fact that NGDP, since the GR, has traveled on a significantly lower level path. While a stable NGDP growth is consistent with a falling/low rate of unemployment, the level of the fundamental determinants of the labor market (employment, participation) are determined by the Level of activity