US December non-farm payrolls once again came in stronger than the market expected at 223k, although remarkably close to our model’s estimate of 222k. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, revisiting its pre-pandemic lows from February 2020 and the lowest unemployment rate since 1969. This was lower than the 3.7% the market had expected and our own forecast, although we had noted downside risks to the forecast given our estimate still fell on an unrounded basis. The labour force grew 439k, which is a welcome sign given the contraction in the labour force seen in previous months. While stronger than expected, employment growth is still moderating and is at its slowest since December 2020, continuing the theme of labour market resilience that has kept the Fed focused on further tightening.
US labour market ends 2022 on a strong note
US labour market ends 2022 on a strong note
US labour market ends 2022 on a strong note
US December non-farm payrolls once again came in stronger than the market expected at 223k, although remarkably close to our model’s estimate of 222k. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, revisiting its pre-pandemic lows from February 2020 and the lowest unemployment rate since 1969. This was lower than the 3.7% the market had expected and our own forecast, although we had noted downside risks to the forecast given our estimate still fell on an unrounded basis. The labour force grew 439k, which is a welcome sign given the contraction in the labour force seen in previous months. While stronger than expected, employment growth is still moderating and is at its slowest since December 2020, continuing the theme of labour market resilience that has kept the Fed focused on further tightening.