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Fading the Trump trade: US dollar asset market correlations with Trump betting odds
Plus, nowcasting Australian Q2 GDP
12 hrs ago
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Stephen Kirchner
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Fading the Trump trade: US dollar asset market correlations with Trump betting odds
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Crypto, gold, prisons and gun stocks: more on the Trump trade
Plus, crypto captives; Rothbardian vibes; and a Sahm rule update
Jul 19
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Stephen Kirchner
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Crypto, gold, prisons and gun stocks: more on the Trump trade
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Project 2025 and US monetary policy
Plus, life below the Sahm threshold; and the US June CPI
Jul 12
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Stephen Kirchner
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Project 2025 and US monetary policy
stephenkirchner.substack.com
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The Trump trade
Trump has told us what he will do. Believe him.
Jul 5
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Stephen Kirchner
3
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The Trump trade
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June 2024
The myth of wage stagnation in the United States: revisiting the 'decoupling' debate
Plus, Australia’s May monthly CPI and Q2 GDP nowcast
Jun 28
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Stephen Kirchner
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The myth of wage stagnation in the United States: revisiting the 'decoupling' debate
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Tariffs or capital controls? Trump may try both
Plus, 41 million Canadians is not nearly enough Canadians
Jun 22
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Stephen Kirchner
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Tariffs or capital controls? Trump may try both
stephenkirchner.substack.com
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Dollar dominance, if you can keep it
Plus, the internationalisation of the euro and US May CPI
Jun 14
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Stephen Kirchner
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Dollar dominance, if you can keep it
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Nowcasting the national accounts
Plus, Canadian versus Australian business cycle comparisons
Jun 7
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Stephen Kirchner
1
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Nowcasting the national accounts
stephenkirchner.substack.com
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May 2024
Prediction markets aren’t popular
Especially with regulators
May 31
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Stephen Kirchner
3
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Prediction markets aren’t popular
stephenkirchner.substack.com
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Is ‘neoliberalism’ to blame for Donald Trump?
The sources of authoritarian populism
May 25
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Stephen Kirchner
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Is ‘neoliberalism’ to blame for Donald Trump?
stephenkirchner.substack.com
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Inflation and the output gap
Plus, billion dollar reno: the case for an RBA governance board
May 18
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Stephen Kirchner
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Inflation and the output gap
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Country risk premia and a second Trump administration
Discontinuous versus continuous risk
May 10
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Stephen Kirchner
2
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Country risk premia and a second Trump administration
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