A different type of uncertainty I think. The onset of the pandemic and the policy response happened very quickly and the RBA thought they had done all they needed to do by March 2020, so while there was plenty of uncertainty, it wasn’t as big a consideration for monetary policy while the RBA was hiding behind self-imposed operating constraints and claiming it had already done all that it could.
The uncertainty today derives not so much from individual tariffs but that the multilateral trading system has been discarded and bilateral and regional FTAs with the US no longer mean anything. A personalist regime is impossible to adapt too. There are multiple equilibria and so the uncertainty is chronic and pervasive.
Maybe! It's also true to say that there was a lot to dispense words on in 2020. Today, in the absence of tariffs we would mostly have an economy humming along relatively calmly. Might as well discuss the crazier possibilities to reach the word count.
glad to see someone's using that package!
Wild that uncertainty is mentioned more than in 2020
A different type of uncertainty I think. The onset of the pandemic and the policy response happened very quickly and the RBA thought they had done all they needed to do by March 2020, so while there was plenty of uncertainty, it wasn’t as big a consideration for monetary policy while the RBA was hiding behind self-imposed operating constraints and claiming it had already done all that it could.
And the uncertainty today? Maybe trump tariffs but TACO seems a pretty reliable answer.
And Australia won’t be that badly affected unless things change quite sharply.
The uncertainty today derives not so much from individual tariffs but that the multilateral trading system has been discarded and bilateral and regional FTAs with the US no longer mean anything. A personalist regime is impossible to adapt too. There are multiple equilibria and so the uncertainty is chronic and pervasive.
Maybe! It's also true to say that there was a lot to dispense words on in 2020. Today, in the absence of tariffs we would mostly have an economy humming along relatively calmly. Might as well discuss the crazier possibilities to reach the word count.