Sitemap - 2024 - Institutional Economics

Reading the economic and financial market outlooks for 2025 so you don’t have to

Holiday links

2024 Year in Review: the centre did not hold

Markets grade the CCP’s economic work

Trade policy uncertainty shocks and the second Trump administration

Scott Bessent’s ‘economic lollapalooza’

What the US dollar tells us about the next administration

How Jewish was Ayn Rand? a new Rand biography

So much winning, you’re not going to believe it

A final US election update

Nice pro-cyclical asset you’ve got there. Shame if something were to happen to it.

Markets and the US Presidential election

Prediction market whales

MAGAnomics as negative supply shock

China syndrome: Why fiscal stimulus won’t cut it

The Fed declares victory

The Simon-Ehrlich wager over 123 years

A short history of the second monetarist counter-revolution

China policymakers shooting the bond market messenger

In defence of hoomers: launching the Big Aussie Short Hoomer Doomer Loser Index

Monetary misperceptions and inflation forecast errors: Andrew Hauser’s unintentional case for market monetarism

Terry McCrann’s trip down the section 11 time tunnel

Bürgenstock: the anti-Bretton Woods

Fading the Trump trade: US dollar asset market correlations with Trump betting odds

Crypto, gold, prisons and gun stocks: more on the Trump trade

Project 2025 and US monetary policy

The Trump trade

The myth of wage stagnation in the United States: revisiting the 'decoupling' debate

Tariffs or capital controls? Trump may try both

Dollar dominance, if you can keep it

Nowcasting the national accounts

Prediction markets aren’t popular

Is ‘neoliberalism’ to blame for Donald Trump?

Inflation and the output gap

Country risk premia and a second Trump administration

The Japanese yen and other catastrophes

The dollar bloc inflation shock: FAIT versus FIT

Trump versus the impossible trinity

Disinflation’s progress

Safe assets and the cycle

Japanese markets after the BoJ

Bank of Japan ends negative interest rates and yield curve control

Central bank independence revisited. Is it still a free lunch?

Drying paint or boiling water? The effects of QT revisited

Douglas Irwin on the past and future of globalisation

Australia not the canary in the coal mine on global rates

The Russian economy under sanctions

The Russian economy under sanctions

US disinflation and productivity growth

The RBA’s new Board meeting format gets its first outing

The right way to be bearish on China

The US 2023 recession that wasn’t

Why Trump 47 will be perversely positive for USD assets

Disinflation, if you can keep it

The inflation effects of quantitative easing: getting over QE aversion